**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus assigns low probability to a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory by year-end. Sustained diplomatic and operational coordination between the Trump administration and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has focused on intelligence sharing, joint anti-drone operations, and limited training rather than unilateral kinetic action. Mexico’s Senate recently authorized 139 US troops for a short joint training exercise in Chihuahua, underscoring controlled bilateral engagement while Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected independent US operations on Mexican soil. US strikes to date have targeted suspected drug vessels in international waters, not qualifying under market rules. Ongoing cartel designations and tariff pressure create background tension, but no confirmed land or territorial strikes have materialized, and scheduled joint activities through September reinforce the current low-odds positioning ahead of the December resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGrève américaine contre le Mexique par… ?
Grève américaine contre le Mexique par… ?
$3,460,537 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
8%
$3,460,537 Vol.
31 décembre
$732,075 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus assigns low probability to a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory by year-end. Sustained diplomatic and operational coordination between the Trump administration and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has focused on intelligence sharing, joint anti-drone operations, and limited training rather than unilateral kinetic action. Mexico’s Senate recently authorized 139 US troops for a short joint training exercise in Chihuahua, underscoring controlled bilateral engagement while Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected independent US operations on Mexican soil. US strikes to date have targeted suspected drug vessels in international waters, not qualifying under market rules. Ongoing cartel designations and tariff pressure create background tension, but no confirmed land or territorial strikes have materialized, and scheduled joint activities through September reinforce the current low-odds positioning ahead of the December resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,460,537Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus assigns low probability to a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory by year-end. Sustained diplomatic and operational coordination between the Trump administration and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has focused on intelligence sharing, joint anti-drone operations, and limited training rather than unilateral kinetic action. Mexico’s Senate recently authorized 139 US troops for a short joint training exercise in Chihuahua, underscoring controlled bilateral engagement while Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected independent US operations on Mexican soil. US strikes to date have targeted suspected drug vessels in international waters, not qualifying under market rules. Ongoing cartel designations and tariff pressure create background tension, but no confirmed land or territorial strikes have materialized, and scheduled joint activities through September reinforce the current low-odds positioning ahead of the December resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,460,537Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus assigns low probability to a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory by year-end. Sustained diplomatic and operational coordination between the Trump administration and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has focused on intelligence sharing, joint anti-drone operations, and limited training rather than unilateral kinetic action. Mexico’s Senate recently authorized 139 US troops for a short joint training exercise in Chihuahua, underscoring controlled bilateral engagement while Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected independent US operations on Mexican soil. US strikes to date have targeted suspected drug vessels in international waters, not qualifying under market rules. Ongoing cartel designations and tariff pressure create background tension, but no confirmed land or territorial strikes have materialized, and scheduled joint activities through September reinforce the current low-odds positioning ahead of the December resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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