Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$2,120,328 Vol.
$2,120,328 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$2,120,328 Vol.
$2,120,328 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,120,328Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,120,328Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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