Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$2,137,180 Vol.
$2,137,180 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$2,137,180 Vol.
$2,137,180 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,137,180Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,137,180Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or sudden escalation in the Strait over recent months. Chinese military activity around Taiwan has remained at subdued levels compared with prior years, with August 2026 aerial sorties well below 2025 totals amid ongoing leadership purges that have disrupted People’s Liberation Army command structures. Beijing has emphasized lower-risk coercive tools such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and routine combat readiness exercises rather than invasion forces. Taiwan continues incremental defense enhancements, including supplementary budgets for missiles and unmanned systems. With only days remaining before resolution, any shift would require an abrupt, high-risk decision absent current indicators of mobilization or diplomatic breakdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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