Trader consensus heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of official Beijing signals for imminent military action and persistent high costs of amphibious assault. Recent PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including carrier deployments in October 2024 following Nobel Prize controversies, have stayed within gray-zone coercion patterns without escalation to invasion footing. Xi Jinping's speeches reaffirm "peaceful reunification" as policy, amid domestic economic challenges like property sector woes curbing adventurism risks. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and alliances like AUKUS bolster deterrence, aligning with simulations showing heavy Chinese losses; upcoming cross-strait dialogues offer de-escalation potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$112Date de fin
Sep 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$112Date de fin
Sep 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at 91.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of official Beijing signals for imminent military action and persistent high costs of amphibious assault. Recent PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including carrier deployments in October 2024 following Nobel Prize controversies, have stayed within gray-zone coercion patterns without escalation to invasion footing. Xi Jinping's speeches reaffirm "peaceful reunification" as policy, amid domestic economic challenges like property sector woes curbing adventurism risks. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and alliances like AUKUS bolster deterrence, aligning with simulations showing heavy Chinese losses; upcoming cross-strait dialogues offer de-escalation potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes