Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk-management mechanisms established in late 2025. Following the Trump-Xi summit, both sides restored high-level defense coordination talks and agreed to dedicated military-to-military channels explicitly designed to deconflict incidents in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. These steps, alongside ongoing trade negotiations amid tariffs and export controls, have prioritized crisis communication over escalation despite continued PLA exercises around Taiwan and US arms support for the island. Economic interdependence, mutual interest in regional stability, and the absence of acute triggers through mid-2026 reinforce the current trader consensus that structural competition will remain below the threshold of open hostilities through year-end. Realistic developments that could still shift probabilities include a major miscalculation during gray-zone operations, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or rapid deterioration in South China Sea confrontations if communication channels prove ineffective.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
$171,336 Vol.
$171,336 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$171,336 Vol.
$171,336 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk-management mechanisms established in late 2025. Following the Trump-Xi summit, both sides restored high-level defense coordination talks and agreed to dedicated military-to-military channels explicitly designed to deconflict incidents in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. These steps, alongside ongoing trade negotiations amid tariffs and export controls, have prioritized crisis communication over escalation despite continued PLA exercises around Taiwan and US arms support for the island. Economic interdependence, mutual interest in regional stability, and the absence of acute triggers through mid-2026 reinforce the current trader consensus that structural competition will remain below the threshold of open hostilities through year-end.
Realistic developments that could still shift probabilities include a major miscalculation during gray-zone operations, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or rapid deterioration in South China Sea confrontations if communication channels prove ineffective.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$171,336Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk-management mechanisms established in late 2025. Following the Trump-Xi summit, both sides restored high-level defense coordination talks and agreed to dedicated military-to-military channels explicitly designed to deconflict incidents in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. These steps, alongside ongoing trade negotiations amid tariffs and export controls, have prioritized crisis communication over escalation despite continued PLA exercises around Taiwan and US arms support for the island. Economic interdependence, mutual interest in regional stability, and the absence of acute triggers through mid-2026 reinforce the current trader consensus that structural competition will remain below the threshold of open hostilities through year-end.
Realistic developments that could still shift probabilities include a major miscalculation during gray-zone operations, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or rapid deterioration in South China Sea confrontations if communication channels prove ineffective.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$171,336Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic engagement and risk-management mechanisms established in late 2025. Following the Trump-Xi summit, both sides restored high-level defense coordination talks and agreed to dedicated military-to-military channels explicitly designed to deconflict incidents in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. These steps, alongside ongoing trade negotiations amid tariffs and export controls, have prioritized crisis communication over escalation despite continued PLA exercises around Taiwan and US arms support for the island. Economic interdependence, mutual interest in regional stability, and the absence of acute triggers through mid-2026 reinforce the current trader consensus that structural competition will remain below the threshold of open hostilities through year-end. Realistic developments that could still shift probabilities include a major miscalculation during gray-zone operations, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or rapid deterioration in South China Sea confrontations if communication channels prove ineffective.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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