Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027 because both sides continue to prioritize deterrence and risk management over direct confrontation, even amid persistent Taiwan Strait tensions. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy emphasizes Indo-Pacific readiness and alliance contributions while supplying arms to Taiwan, and recent Chinese carrier transits and drills remain calibrated to signal resolve without crossing into open conflict. Diplomatic channels, including past summits and trade arrangements, alongside mutual awareness of severe economic and escalation costs, sustain this stability through the short window ahead. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major navigational incident during exercises, miscalculation during heightened ADIZ or strait activity, or abrupt policy shifts in Taipei or Beijing that alter the current equilibrium before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
$170,160 Vol.
$170,160 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$170,160 Vol.
$170,160 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027 because both sides continue to prioritize deterrence and risk management over direct confrontation, even amid persistent Taiwan Strait tensions. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy emphasizes Indo-Pacific readiness and alliance contributions while supplying arms to Taiwan, and recent Chinese carrier transits and drills remain calibrated to signal resolve without crossing into open conflict. Diplomatic channels, including past summits and trade arrangements, alongside mutual awareness of severe economic and escalation costs, sustain this stability through the short window ahead. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major navigational incident during exercises, miscalculation during heightened ADIZ or strait activity, or abrupt policy shifts in Taipei or Beijing that alter the current equilibrium before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$170,160Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027 because both sides continue to prioritize deterrence and risk management over direct confrontation, even amid persistent Taiwan Strait tensions. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy emphasizes Indo-Pacific readiness and alliance contributions while supplying arms to Taiwan, and recent Chinese carrier transits and drills remain calibrated to signal resolve without crossing into open conflict. Diplomatic channels, including past summits and trade arrangements, alongside mutual awareness of severe economic and escalation costs, sustain this stability through the short window ahead. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major navigational incident during exercises, miscalculation during heightened ADIZ or strait activity, or abrupt policy shifts in Taipei or Beijing that alter the current equilibrium before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$170,160Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027 because both sides continue to prioritize deterrence and risk management over direct confrontation, even amid persistent Taiwan Strait tensions. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy emphasizes Indo-Pacific readiness and alliance contributions while supplying arms to Taiwan, and recent Chinese carrier transits and drills remain calibrated to signal resolve without crossing into open conflict. Diplomatic channels, including past summits and trade arrangements, alongside mutual awareness of severe economic and escalation costs, sustain this stability through the short window ahead. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major navigational incident during exercises, miscalculation during heightened ADIZ or strait activity, or abrupt policy shifts in Taipei or Beijing that alter the current equilibrium before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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