Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Beijing summit and resulting framework for managed competition, has stabilized US-China relations and prioritized military-to-military communication channels to prevent inadvertent escalation. Both sides continue arms sales monitoring, tariff negotiations, and Indo-Pacific posture adjustments without direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month. US munitions constraints from prior operations further underscore deterrence calculations favoring avoidance of sustained conflict. Trader consensus at 95.7% for no clash before 2027 reflects this sustained de-escalation pattern and absence of triggering incidents. Potential shifts could arise from accidental collisions during exercises, abrupt changes in Taiwan arms policy, or domestic leadership pressures altering risk thresholds within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
$171,299 Vol.
$171,299 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$171,299 Vol.
$171,299 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Beijing summit and resulting framework for managed competition, has stabilized US-China relations and prioritized military-to-military communication channels to prevent inadvertent escalation. Both sides continue arms sales monitoring, tariff negotiations, and Indo-Pacific posture adjustments without direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month. US munitions constraints from prior operations further underscore deterrence calculations favoring avoidance of sustained conflict. Trader consensus at 95.7% for no clash before 2027 reflects this sustained de-escalation pattern and absence of triggering incidents. Potential shifts could arise from accidental collisions during exercises, abrupt changes in Taiwan arms policy, or domestic leadership pressures altering risk thresholds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$171,299Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Beijing summit and resulting framework for managed competition, has stabilized US-China relations and prioritized military-to-military communication channels to prevent inadvertent escalation. Both sides continue arms sales monitoring, tariff negotiations, and Indo-Pacific posture adjustments without direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month. US munitions constraints from prior operations further underscore deterrence calculations favoring avoidance of sustained conflict. Trader consensus at 95.7% for no clash before 2027 reflects this sustained de-escalation pattern and absence of triggering incidents. Potential shifts could arise from accidental collisions during exercises, abrupt changes in Taiwan arms policy, or domestic leadership pressures altering risk thresholds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$171,299Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Beijing summit and resulting framework for managed competition, has stabilized US-China relations and prioritized military-to-military communication channels to prevent inadvertent escalation. Both sides continue arms sales monitoring, tariff negotiations, and Indo-Pacific posture adjustments without direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea over the past month. US munitions constraints from prior operations further underscore deterrence calculations favoring avoidance of sustained conflict. Trader consensus at 95.7% for no clash before 2027 reflects this sustained de-escalation pattern and absence of triggering incidents. Potential shifts could arise from accidental collisions during exercises, abrupt changes in Taiwan arms policy, or domestic leadership pressures altering risk thresholds within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes