The decisive May 2026 jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds has solidified trader consensus around a “No” outcome at 96.2% implied probability. The unanimous ruling, reached in under two hours after a three-week trial focused on OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit shift and AI mission claims, eliminated the core dispute without any settlement. Musk’s public statements vowing an appeal to the Ninth Circuit rather than negotiation further reinforce the market’s view that no agreement is forthcoming. While post-verdict talks during appeals remain theoretically possible, the clear loss and entrenched positions between the two AI leaders make any resolution through settlement highly improbable absent an unexpected external catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$64,897 Vol.
$64,897 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$64,897 Vol.
$64,897 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The decisive May 2026 jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds has solidified trader consensus around a “No” outcome at 96.2% implied probability. The unanimous ruling, reached in under two hours after a three-week trial focused on OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit shift and AI mission claims, eliminated the core dispute without any settlement. Musk’s public statements vowing an appeal to the Ninth Circuit rather than negotiation further reinforce the market’s view that no agreement is forthcoming. While post-verdict talks during appeals remain theoretically possible, the clear loss and entrenched positions between the two AI leaders make any resolution through settlement highly improbable absent an unexpected external catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$64,897Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The decisive May 2026 jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds has solidified trader consensus around a “No” outcome at 96.2% implied probability. The unanimous ruling, reached in under two hours after a three-week trial focused on OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit shift and AI mission claims, eliminated the core dispute without any settlement. Musk’s public statements vowing an appeal to the Ninth Circuit rather than negotiation further reinforce the market’s view that no agreement is forthcoming. While post-verdict talks during appeals remain theoretically possible, the clear loss and entrenched positions between the two AI leaders make any resolution through settlement highly improbable absent an unexpected external catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,897Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The decisive May 2026 jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds has solidified trader consensus around a “No” outcome at 96.2% implied probability. The unanimous ruling, reached in under two hours after a three-week trial focused on OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit shift and AI mission claims, eliminated the core dispute without any settlement. Musk’s public statements vowing an appeal to the Ninth Circuit rather than negotiation further reinforce the market’s view that no agreement is forthcoming. While post-verdict talks during appeals remain theoretically possible, the clear loss and entrenched positions between the two AI leaders make any resolution through settlement highly improbable absent an unexpected external catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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