Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, with the first units rolling off the line in February and a public launch event in Austin on September 3 adding vehicles to the company's robotaxi fleet. However, initial output remains low amid Musk's warnings of an "agonizingly slow" ramp for the new platform, and Tesla removed prior volume production guidance for 2026 from its Q2 update. Deployment prioritizes supervised fleet operations over retail sales, with no consumer configurator, MSRP confirmation, or completed public transactions reported. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy and scaling challenges further constrain the timeline, aligning with the market's 82% implied probability against a $30,000-or-less retail sale by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
18% chance
$54,269 Vol.
$54,269 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
18% chance
$54,269 Vol.
$54,269 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, with the first units rolling off the line in February and a public launch event in Austin on September 3 adding vehicles to the company's robotaxi fleet. However, initial output remains low amid Musk's warnings of an "agonizingly slow" ramp for the new platform, and Tesla removed prior volume production guidance for 2026 from its Q2 update. Deployment prioritizes supervised fleet operations over retail sales, with no consumer configurator, MSRP confirmation, or completed public transactions reported. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy and scaling challenges further constrain the timeline, aligning with the market's 82% implied probability against a $30,000-or-less retail sale by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$54,269Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, with the first units rolling off the line in February and a public launch event in Austin on September 3 adding vehicles to the company's robotaxi fleet. However, initial output remains low amid Musk's warnings of an "agonizingly slow" ramp for the new platform, and Tesla removed prior volume production guidance for 2026 from its Q2 update. Deployment prioritizes supervised fleet operations over retail sales, with no consumer configurator, MSRP confirmation, or completed public transactions reported. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy and scaling challenges further constrain the timeline, aligning with the market's 82% implied probability against a $30,000-or-less retail sale by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$54,269Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, with the first units rolling off the line in February and a public launch event in Austin on September 3 adding vehicles to the company's robotaxi fleet. However, initial output remains low amid Musk's warnings of an "agonizingly slow" ramp for the new platform, and Tesla removed prior volume production guidance for 2026 from its Q2 update. Deployment prioritizes supervised fleet operations over retail sales, with no consumer configurator, MSRP confirmation, or completed public transactions reported. Regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy and scaling challenges further constrain the timeline, aligning with the market's 82% implied probability against a $30,000-or-less retail sale by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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