Traders assign a 97% implied probability against the Parti Vert du Québec securing any seat in the October 5, 2026, provincial election because the party has never won representation in the National Assembly and current polling aggregates show negligible support. Major forecasting models focus exclusively on established parties such as the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, with no measurable Green vote share appearing in recent surveys. Quebec’s first-past-the-post system in single-member ridings further disadvantages smaller parties lacking geographically concentrated backing. The near-term campaign timeline leaves limited opportunity for late shifts, though an unforeseen environmental crisis or collapse in support for larger parties could theoretically alter the outcome in a handful of ridings.