**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at roughly 29% but faces a narrow path to the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly.** The October 5, 2026, election features a fragmented field, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at about 24%, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, the Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and others project the PQ winning the most seats on average (around 44–49) yet falling short of a majority in the large majority of simulations, producing probabilities of a PQ majority as low as 2–11%. The CAQ’s recent gains, concentrated among francophone voters, have narrowed the PQ’s earlier advantage and increased the number of competitive ridings. High levels of undecided voters (often near 40%) and the split among federalist parties further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a clear majority. The election call on August 27 and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional battles between the PQ and CAQ, reinforce trader consensus that a PQ majority remains improbable under current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
17% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at roughly 29% but faces a narrow path to the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly.**
The October 5, 2026, election features a fragmented field, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at about 24%, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, the Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and others project the PQ winning the most seats on average (around 44–49) yet falling short of a majority in the large majority of simulations, producing probabilities of a PQ majority as low as 2–11%.
The CAQ’s recent gains, concentrated among francophone voters, have narrowed the PQ’s earlier advantage and increased the number of competitive ridings. High levels of undecided voters (often near 40%) and the split among federalist parties further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a clear majority. The election call on August 27 and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional battles between the PQ and CAQ, reinforce trader consensus that a PQ majority remains improbable under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$885Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at roughly 29% but faces a narrow path to the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly.**
The October 5, 2026, election features a fragmented field, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at about 24%, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, the Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and others project the PQ winning the most seats on average (around 44–49) yet falling short of a majority in the large majority of simulations, producing probabilities of a PQ majority as low as 2–11%.
The CAQ’s recent gains, concentrated among francophone voters, have narrowed the PQ’s earlier advantage and increased the number of competitive ridings. High levels of undecided voters (often near 40%) and the split among federalist parties further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a clear majority. The election call on August 27 and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional battles between the PQ and CAQ, reinforce trader consensus that a PQ majority remains improbable under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$885Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at roughly 29% but faces a narrow path to the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly.** The October 5, 2026, election features a fragmented field, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at about 24%, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, the Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and others project the PQ winning the most seats on average (around 44–49) yet falling short of a majority in the large majority of simulations, producing probabilities of a PQ majority as low as 2–11%. The CAQ’s recent gains, concentrated among francophone voters, have narrowed the PQ’s earlier advantage and increased the number of competitive ridings. High levels of undecided voters (often near 40%) and the split among federalist parties further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a clear majority. The election call on August 27 and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional battles between the PQ and CAQ, reinforce trader consensus that a PQ majority remains improbable under current conditions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes