Skip to main content

Pour trader aux États-Unis, va sur polymarket.us

icon for Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ?
Politique·OTAN

Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ?

icon for Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ?
Politique·OTAN

Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ?

$6,331,883 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$6,331,883 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre

$1,306,137 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials have repeatedly stated that the United States remains committed to NATO membership while advancing policies to shift more conventional defense responsibilities to European allies. Recent actions include transfers of NATO command leadership to non-US officers, reductions in certain US rotational forces in Europe, and a July 2026 diplomatic push urging allies to withdraw from the Rome Statute governing the International Criminal Court. No formal notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty has been issued, and market pricing reflects the absence of legislative or executive steps required for withdrawal. Scheduled alliance meetings and ongoing burden-sharing discussions continue to shape trader assessments of near-term exit risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,331,883
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:59 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials have repeatedly stated that the United States remains committed to NATO membership while advancing policies to shift more conventional defense responsibilities to European allies. Recent actions include transfers of NATO command leadership to non-US officers, reductions in certain US rotational forces in Europe, and a July 2026 diplomatic push urging allies to withdraw from the Rome Statute governing the International Criminal Court. No formal notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty has been issued, and market pricing reflects the absence of legislative or executive steps required for withdrawal. Scheduled alliance meetings and ongoing burden-sharing discussions continue to shape trader assessments of near-term exit risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,331,883
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:59 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Un pays quittera-t-il l’OTAN d’ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Un pays quittera-t-il l’OTAN d’ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

3%
Oui
icon for Un pays quittera-t-il les BRICS en 2026 ?

Un pays quittera-t-il les BRICS en 2026 ?

6%
Oui
icon for Article 5 de l’OTAN avant 2027 ?

Article 5 de l’OTAN avant 2027 ?

5%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 2%, suivi de « 30 avril » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 2¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 2% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » a généré $6.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre » à seulement 2%, avec « 30 avril » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis se retireront-ils de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.