Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on a draw in Hikaru Nakamura vs. Wei Yi at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open round 11, reflecting their tied 4.5/10 scores after 10 rounds and a round 4 classical draw where Nakamura fumbled a winning edge. Nakamura's superior 2810 Elo rating, white pieces, and steadier recent form—including a round 10 draw vs. second-place Anish Giri and his first tournament win over Fabiano Caruana in round 8—position him as 25.5% favorite, while Wei Yi's 9.5% reflects losses to leader Javokhir Sindarov (round 6) and Caruana (round 10) despite his breakthrough round 7 win over Andrey Esipenko. Elite defenses in a high-stakes round robin favor solidification over risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIf Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on a draw in Hikaru Nakamura vs. Wei Yi at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open round 11, reflecting their tied 4.5/10 scores after 10 rounds and a round 4 classical draw where Nakamura fumbled a winning edge. Nakamura's superior 2810 Elo rating, white pieces, and steadier recent form—including a round 10 draw vs. second-place Anish Giri and his first tournament win over Fabiano Caruana in round 8—position him as 25.5% favorite, while Wei Yi's 9.5% reflects losses to leader Javokhir Sindarov (round 6) and Caruana (round 10) despite his breakthrough round 7 win over Andrey Esipenko. Elite defenses in a high-stakes round robin favor solidification over risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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