The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins trader consensus for a "No" outcome through the end of 2026. Instrumental records show only five such events since 1952, with an average recurrence of roughly one every 15–20 years globally, and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake. Paleoseismic data and USGS analyses indicate recurrence intervals of centuries to millennia on individual subduction zones, consistent with the absence of any M9+ events amid recent large quakes like the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8. With just months remaining, this historical pattern and lack of precursors strongly favor the current odds, though an unforeseen cluster or rapid strain release on a major megathrust could still occur.