Recent developments in the 2026 eastern Pacific season, including a super El Niño driving rapid intensification, have produced three Category 5 hurricanes—Genevieve, Lowell, and Polo—tying the seasonal record without surpassing it. Hurricane Polo’s explosive strengthening to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 made it the second-most intense Pacific storm on record by central pressure, behind only 2015’s Patricia at 872 mb, per National Hurricane Center data. With the season well advanced and late-September conditions typically limiting further extremes, trader consensus at 61.5% for “No” reflects the low likelihood of a new all-time intensity benchmark before November 30, though model runs through October still warrant monitoring for any unexpected late surge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में ऑल - टाइम पैसिफ़िक कैटेगरी 5 तूफ़ान का रिकॉर्ड टूट गया?
2026 में ऑल - टाइम पैसिफ़िक कैटेगरी 5 तूफ़ान का रिकॉर्ड टूट गया?
हाँ
39% संभावना
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
हाँ
39% संभावना
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the 2026 eastern Pacific season, including a super El Niño driving rapid intensification, have produced three Category 5 hurricanes—Genevieve, Lowell, and Polo—tying the seasonal record without surpassing it. Hurricane Polo’s explosive strengthening to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 made it the second-most intense Pacific storm on record by central pressure, behind only 2015’s Patricia at 872 mb, per National Hurricane Center data. With the season well advanced and late-September conditions typically limiting further extremes, trader consensus at 61.5% for “No” reflects the low likelihood of a new all-time intensity benchmark before November 30, though model runs through October still warrant monitoring for any unexpected late surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 22, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$119समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 4:47 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the 2026 eastern Pacific season, including a super El Niño driving rapid intensification, have produced three Category 5 hurricanes—Genevieve, Lowell, and Polo—tying the seasonal record without surpassing it. Hurricane Polo’s explosive strengthening to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 made it the second-most intense Pacific storm on record by central pressure, behind only 2015’s Patricia at 872 mb, per National Hurricane Center data. With the season well advanced and late-September conditions typically limiting further extremes, trader consensus at 61.5% for “No” reflects the low likelihood of a new all-time intensity benchmark before November 30, though model runs through October still warrant monitoring for any unexpected late surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.
Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$119समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 4:47 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the 2026 eastern Pacific season, including a super El Niño driving rapid intensification, have produced three Category 5 hurricanes—Genevieve, Lowell, and Polo—tying the seasonal record without surpassing it. Hurricane Polo’s explosive strengthening to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 made it the second-most intense Pacific storm on record by central pressure, behind only 2015’s Patricia at 872 mb, per National Hurricane Center data. With the season well advanced and late-September conditions typically limiting further extremes, trader consensus at 61.5% for “No” reflects the low likelihood of a new all-time intensity benchmark before November 30, though model runs through October still warrant monitoring for any unexpected late surge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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