Strengthening El Niño conditions, which increase Atlantic wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation, are the dominant factor keeping 2026 named-storm totals near the low end of forecasts. NOAA’s May outlook projected 8–14 named storms with a 55% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update lowered its call to nine storms. As of late July only two systems—Arthur and Bertha—had formed, well below the historical pace. With peak months still ahead, traders see comparable odds for 7 or fewer, exactly eight, or 9-plus, reflecting model uncertainty over whether late-season steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures can offset the El Niño suppression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के लिए अटलांटिक नामित तूफान का पूर्वानुमान?
2026 के लिए अटलांटिक नामित तूफान का पूर्वानुमान?
9+ 49%
7 या उससे कम 49%
8 49%
नया
नया
10 अग, 2026
7 या उससे कम
49%
8
49%
9+
49%
9+ 49%
7 या उससे कम 49%
8 49%
नया
नया
10 अग, 2026
7 या उससे कम
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
8
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
9+
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).Strengthening El Niño conditions, which increase Atlantic wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation, are the dominant factor keeping 2026 named-storm totals near the low end of forecasts. NOAA’s May outlook projected 8–14 named storms with a 55% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update lowered its call to nine storms. As of late July only two systems—Arthur and Bertha—had formed, well below the historical pace. With peak months still ahead, traders see comparable odds for 7 or fewer, exactly eight, or 9-plus, reflecting model uncertainty over whether late-season steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures can offset the El Niño suppression.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
10 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).Strengthening El Niño conditions, which increase Atlantic wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation, are the dominant factor keeping 2026 named-storm totals near the low end of forecasts. NOAA’s May outlook projected 8–14 named storms with a 55% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update lowered its call to nine storms. As of late July only two systems—Arthur and Bertha—had formed, well below the historical pace. With peak months still ahead, traders see comparable odds for 7 or fewer, exactly eight, or 9-plus, reflecting model uncertainty over whether late-season steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures can offset the El Niño suppression.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
10 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strengthening El Niño conditions, which increase Atlantic wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation, are the dominant factor keeping 2026 named-storm totals near the low end of forecasts. NOAA’s May outlook projected 8–14 named storms with a 55% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University’s July update lowered its call to nine storms. As of late July only two systems—Arthur and Bertha—had formed, well below the historical pace. With peak months still ahead, traders see comparable odds for 7 or fewer, exactly eight, or 9-plus, reflecting model uncertainty over whether late-season steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures can offset the El Niño suppression.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न