The closely contested FL-02 Democratic primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026, features four main candidates—Yen Bailey, Amanda Green, Nic Zateslo, and Brice Barnes—with no dominant frontrunner or public polling establishing clear separation. Recent campaign finance reports through June show Zateslo leading in total receipts, followed by Green, which has supported their respective market shares, while the overall balance of trader positions reflects uncertainty over voter turnout, name recognition, and late endorsements in this low-visibility House primary. The even distribution of probabilities captures the competitive dynamics typical of a multi-candidate race where small shifts in early voting or ballot momentum could alter outcomes before election day.