Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 51% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his 2024 victory in the same closed primary and heavy self-funding of over $2 million that year, providing enduring name recognition and fundraising edge against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto. Justin Story trails at 25.5% with recent visibility from press statements criticizing Venezuelan election irregularities and advocating TSA privatization, signaling grassroots momentum. Marcus Carter (8%), Jorge Malavet (6.5%), and Howard Steven Rance (4.3%) lag amid limited profiles in the early cycle. No public polls exist yet; odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the August 18 primary, with potential shifts from endorsements or FEC reports.