The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's commanding 98.4% implied probability stems from its record-shattering domestic opening of $190 million over five days starting April 1, followed by a robust second weekend haul pushing its North American gross past $315 million by mid-April—already 2026's highest-grossing release and dwarfing all other April contenders. Buoyed by the Nintendo franchise's proven family draw after the prior film's billion-dollar triumph, strong presales, and minimal family competition, traders see no realistic path for late-April openers like the Michael Jackson biopic (April 24) to close the gap despite biopic precedent like Bohemian Rhapsody. An upset would require Mario's legs to collapse dramatically amid mixed reviews, perhaps from audience fatigue or counterprogramming, though its animation appeal and Easter boost suggest sustained momentum through May 31.