Current forecast models from meteorological agencies project a daytime high of 25–26°C in Mexico City on May 22, closely matching the late-May climatological average of 26–27°C under stable high-pressure patterns, moderate solar heating, and minimal cloud cover. This drives the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C or higher, as regional data show limited variability that rarely drops maxima below the threshold. Model consensus indicates only modest deviations, with brief showers unlikely to produce meaningful evaporative cooling. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected northerly airflow surge or persistent rain bands, though current runs assign low probability to such rapid shifts.