US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
$157,970 वॉल्यूम
May 20
97%
May 21
91%
May 22
80%
May 24
67%
May 27
61%
May 31
51%
June 7
40%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$157,970 वॉल्यूम
May 20
$39,706 वॉल्यूम
97%
May 21
$40,450 वॉल्यूम
91%
May 22
$23,635 वॉल्यूम
80%
May 24
$15,007 वॉल्यूम
67%
May 27
$12,105 वॉल्यूम
61%
May 31
$5,503 वॉल्यूम
51%
June 7
$3,595 वॉल्यूम
40%
June 15
$3,713 वॉल्यूम
37%
June 30
$1,876 वॉल्यूम
34%
July 31
$6,156 वॉल्यूम
30%
December 31
$6,879 वॉल्यूम
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$157,970बाज़ार खुला
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$157,970बाज़ार खुला
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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