Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 वॉल्यूम
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
40%
>1.29ºC
$270 वॉल्यूम
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$446समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$446समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न