Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 50.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36.5% for first, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from La Niña. Copernicus ERA5 data shows January through March 2026 as the fifth-, fifth-, and fourth-warmest respective months globally since 1940, with anomalies of +0.51°C, +0.53°C, and +0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines, fueled by persistent ocean heat content and anthropogenic forcing. NOAA's latest forecast projects El Niño emergence by June–August (62% probability), persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C annually—positioning 2026 to challenge 2024's record (warmest) and 2025's second- or third-place finish. Upcoming monthly reports from NOAA and Copernicus, plus May ENSO updates, could refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
2 51%
1 37%
4 4.9%
3 4.5%
$2,620,192 वॉल्यूम
$2,620,192 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
37%
2
51%
3
4%
4
5%
5
1%
6 या उससे कम
2%
2 51%
1 37%
4 4.9%
3 4.5%
$2,620,192 वॉल्यूम
$2,620,192 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
$414,321 वॉल्यूम
37%
2
$288,956 वॉल्यूम
51%
3
$387,785 वॉल्यूम
4%
4
$386,637 वॉल्यूम
5%
5
$697,467 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 या उससे कम
$445,025 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 50.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36.5% for first, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from La Niña. Copernicus ERA5 data shows January through March 2026 as the fifth-, fifth-, and fourth-warmest respective months globally since 1940, with anomalies of +0.51°C, +0.53°C, and +0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines, fueled by persistent ocean heat content and anthropogenic forcing. NOAA's latest forecast projects El Niño emergence by June–August (62% probability), persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C annually—positioning 2026 to challenge 2024's record (warmest) and 2025's second- or third-place finish. Upcoming monthly reports from NOAA and Copernicus, plus May ENSO updates, could refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,620,192समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 50.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36.5% for first, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from La Niña. Copernicus ERA5 data shows January through March 2026 as the fifth-, fifth-, and fourth-warmest respective months globally since 1940, with anomalies of +0.51°C, +0.53°C, and +0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines, fueled by persistent ocean heat content and anthropogenic forcing. NOAA's latest forecast projects El Niño emergence by June–August (62% probability), persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C annually—positioning 2026 to challenge 2024's record (warmest) and 2025's second- or third-place finish. Upcoming monthly reports from NOAA and Copernicus, plus May ENSO updates, could refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,620,192समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 50.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36.5% for first, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from La Niña. Copernicus ERA5 data shows January through March 2026 as the fifth-, fifth-, and fourth-warmest respective months globally since 1940, with anomalies of +0.51°C, +0.53°C, and +0.53°C above 1991–2020 baselines, fueled by persistent ocean heat content and anthropogenic forcing. NOAA's latest forecast projects El Niño emergence by June–August (62% probability), persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C annually—positioning 2026 to challenge 2024's record (warmest) and 2025's second- or third-place finish. Upcoming monthly reports from NOAA and Copernicus, plus May ENSO updates, could refine these market-implied odds amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न