NASA’s Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV no earlier than 2028, after restructuring Artemis III into a 2027 low-Earth-orbit test of Orion docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon lander prototypes. Artemis II’s successful April 2026 crewed flyby confirmed the near-term focus remains on orbital integration and risk reduction rather than surface operations. Starship continues uncrewed flight testing with incremental progress on reusability and refueling, yet both commercial Human Landing Systems still face substantial technical and schedule hurdles that have repeatedly delayed prior targets. This established timeline and pattern of slips underpin the 99.2 percent market-implied probability of no 2026 landing, though an unexpected acceleration in Starship capabilities or private-sector initiative could theoretically compress schedules if multiple critical demonstrations succeed rapidly.