Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the program's first flight of the year. As of mid-April 2026, zero Starship flights have occurred despite initial Q1 targets, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now slipped multiple times to early May following recent static fire tests and propellant system validations in March. Historical cadence remains sub-10 annually amid redesigns, FAA licensing hurdles, and complex reuse milestones like booster catches, tempering optimism for higher bins like 9-10 (15%) despite aspirational goals of 25 launches yearly. Upcoming Flight 12 success could shift sentiment toward 5-6 outcomes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में स्पेसएक्स स्टारशिप के कितने लॉन्च अंतरिक्ष तक पहुँचते हैं?
2026 में स्पेसएक्स स्टारशिप के कितने लॉन्च अंतरिक्ष तक पहुँचते हैं?
<5 60%
5-6 17%
9-10 15.4%
>16 5.5%
$440,077 वॉल्यूम
$440,077 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<5
60%
5-6
17%
7-8
4%
9-10
15%
11-12
4%
13-14
5%
15-16
2%
>16
6%
<5 60%
5-6 17%
9-10 15.4%
>16 5.5%
$440,077 वॉल्यूम
$440,077 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<5
$87,563 वॉल्यूम
60%
5-6
$106,732 वॉल्यूम
17%
7-8
$151,197 वॉल्यूम
4%
9-10
$55,090 वॉल्यूम
15%
11-12
$3,100 वॉल्यूम
4%
13-14
$3,995 वॉल्यूम
5%
15-16
$23,877 वॉल्यूम
2%
>16
$8,524 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the program's first flight of the year. As of mid-April 2026, zero Starship flights have occurred despite initial Q1 targets, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now slipped multiple times to early May following recent static fire tests and propellant system validations in March. Historical cadence remains sub-10 annually amid redesigns, FAA licensing hurdles, and complex reuse milestones like booster catches, tempering optimism for higher bins like 9-10 (15%) despite aspirational goals of 25 launches yearly. Upcoming Flight 12 success could shift sentiment toward 5-6 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$440,077समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the program's first flight of the year. As of mid-April 2026, zero Starship flights have occurred despite initial Q1 targets, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now slipped multiple times to early May following recent static fire tests and propellant system validations in March. Historical cadence remains sub-10 annually amid redesigns, FAA licensing hurdles, and complex reuse milestones like booster catches, tempering optimism for higher bins like 9-10 (15%) despite aspirational goals of 25 launches yearly. Upcoming Flight 12 success could shift sentiment toward 5-6 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$440,077समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than 5 SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 commanding a 60% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the program's first flight of the year. As of mid-April 2026, zero Starship flights have occurred despite initial Q1 targets, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster—now slipped multiple times to early May following recent static fire tests and propellant system validations in March. Historical cadence remains sub-10 annually amid redesigns, FAA licensing hurdles, and complex reuse milestones like booster catches, tempering optimism for higher bins like 9-10 (15%) despite aspirational goals of 25 launches yearly. Upcoming Flight 12 success could shift sentiment toward 5-6 outcomes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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