Advanced planetary defense systems, including NASA’s Sentry monitoring and ground-based surveys like the Mt. Lemmon Observatory, have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst in 2026, supporting the 89.5% market-implied probability of no major strike. Recent detections, such as the small 2026 RW1 asteroid that impacted harmlessly over the Indian Ocean after only hours of warning, illustrate improved early tracking of meter-scale objects while confirming their energies remain well below threshold. Historical data and refined orbital catalogs show such energetic events occur on timescales far longer than a single year, with ongoing close approaches of larger NEOs posing zero risk. Traders are watching routine Sentry updates and new survey results as the main near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if unexpected objects appear.