Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero confirmed impact risks for the year and ESA's risk list confirming no near-term threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs). Early 2026 saw a surge in fireballs—including a March 8 European bolide and U.S. events over Houston and the Northeast—but none reached the 10kt threshold, with energies estimated below 1kt based on planetary defense analyses. Improved NEO detection, highlighted by a record 11,000 asteroids cataloged recently and safe close approaches like 2026 GD on April 9, reinforces the "No" lead, though undetected small bolides keep a 23.5% "Yes" alive amid incomplete sky surveys. Ongoing monitoring by global networks remains key through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?
2026 में प्रमुख उल्का हड़ताल (10kt +)?
हाँ
$144,164 वॉल्यूम
$144,164 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$144,164 वॉल्यूम
$144,164 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero confirmed impact risks for the year and ESA's risk list confirming no near-term threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs). Early 2026 saw a surge in fireballs—including a March 8 European bolide and U.S. events over Houston and the Northeast—but none reached the 10kt threshold, with energies estimated below 1kt based on planetary defense analyses. Improved NEO detection, highlighted by a record 11,000 asteroids cataloged recently and safe close approaches like 2026 GD on April 9, reinforces the "No" lead, though undetected small bolides keep a 23.5% "Yes" alive amid incomplete sky surveys. Ongoing monitoring by global networks remains key through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$144,164समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero confirmed impact risks for the year and ESA's risk list confirming no near-term threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs). Early 2026 saw a surge in fireballs—including a March 8 European bolide and U.S. events over Houston and the Northeast—but none reached the 10kt threshold, with energies estimated below 1kt based on planetary defense analyses. Improved NEO detection, highlighted by a record 11,000 asteroids cataloged recently and safe close approaches like 2026 GD on April 9, reinforces the "No" lead, though undetected small bolides keep a 23.5% "Yes" alive amid incomplete sky surveys. Ongoing monitoring by global networks remains key through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$144,164समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero confirmed impact risks for the year and ESA's risk list confirming no near-term threats among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs). Early 2026 saw a surge in fireballs—including a March 8 European bolide and U.S. events over Houston and the Northeast—but none reached the 10kt threshold, with energies estimated below 1kt based on planetary defense analyses. Improved NEO detection, highlighted by a record 11,000 asteroids cataloged recently and safe close approaches like 2026 GD on April 9, reinforces the "No" lead, though undetected small bolides keep a 23.5% "Yes" alive amid incomplete sky surveys. Ongoing monitoring by global networks remains key through year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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