SpaceX’s Starship program has advanced V3 hardware through 13 integrated flights by mid-2026, with Flight 13 achieving an intact upper-stage reentry and Starlink deployment but still relying on booster splashdowns and no orbital-class tower catch of the ship. Traders price “No” at 62.5% for full reusability—defined as repeated, rapid recovery and reflight of both stages—before 2027 because the upper-stage catch remains unattempted, heat-shield durability for multiple missions is unproven, and regulatory approvals plus vehicle turnaround times introduce execution risk. Flight 14’s September orbital attempt and any subsequent Mechazilla ship capture represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they enable a late-2026 reflight as Elon Musk has projected.