Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake via USGS monitoring, no Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to emerging El Niño conditions (likely 60-80% chance by summer per NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and U.S. landfall risks historically below 10% annually for Category 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic hazards remain inherently unpredictable but align with rare baseline rates (one 8.5+ quake globally every 5-10 years). Key updates include May hurricane outlooks and ongoing USGS alerts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
हाँ
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake via USGS monitoring, no Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to emerging El Niño conditions (likely 60-80% chance by summer per NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and U.S. landfall risks historically below 10% annually for Category 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic hazards remain inherently unpredictable but align with rare baseline rates (one 8.5+ quake globally every 5-10 years). Key updates include May hurricane outlooks and ongoing USGS alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$203,829समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake via USGS monitoring, no Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to emerging El Niño conditions (likely 60-80% chance by summer per NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and U.S. landfall risks historically below 10% annually for Category 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic hazards remain inherently unpredictable but align with rare baseline rates (one 8.5+ quake globally every 5-10 years). Key updates include May hurricane outlooks and ongoing USGS alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$203,829समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72% probability of "No" natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake via USGS monitoring, no Volcanic Explosivity Index 6+ eruption, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to emerging El Niño conditions (likely 60-80% chance by summer per NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and U.S. landfall risks historically below 10% annually for Category 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic hazards remain inherently unpredictable but align with rare baseline rates (one 8.5+ quake globally every 5-10 years). Key updates include May hurricane outlooks and ongoing USGS alerts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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