Ongoing global surveillance by the WHO and CDC shows SARS-CoV-2 continuing to circulate at low levels through established Omicron sublineages such as XFG and BA.3.2, with test positivity rates near 1-2% and no evidence of a novel coronavirus sparking widespread severe disease. High population immunity from prior infections and vaccinations, combined with routine genomic monitoring and moderate risk assessments, underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability against a new 2026 pandemic. A realistic shift could occur from an undetected animal reservoir spillover or a variant acquiring major immune escape plus higher virulence, though current model consensus and sequencing data indicate these thresholds remain distant before year-end.