Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93% implied probability to "No" for a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, reflecting sustained low global SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the absence of any novel coronavirus achieving pandemic thresholds per World Health Organization criteria. WHO data through mid-March 2026 shows COVID-19 cases declining sharply, with infections dropping in 38 U.S. states per CDC estimates as of early April, amid endemic circulation of variants like BA.3.2 despite its immune escape potential in limited regions. High population immunity from prior infections and boosters, coupled with robust surveillance, underpins this positioning. Realistic challenges include a sudden zoonotic spillover of a highly virulent new strain or rapid variant evolution overwhelming public health systems, though current trends and model forecasts indicate low risk ahead of ongoing WHO monitoring updates.