The 96% market-implied probability of "No" for an Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remaining a large but regionally contained event, with roughly 5,800 confirmed cases and 2,800 deaths as of late August. Declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO, the outbreak has produced the fastest growth on record yet shows limited sustained transmission beyond affected provinces and a handful of imported cases without onward chains in Uganda, Europe, or elsewhere. Contact-tracing improvements, expanded laboratory capacity, and Uganda’s declaration of outbreak end after 42 days without cases support containment expectations, even amid insecurity and response gaps. A realistic shift toward “Yes” would require rapid geographic expansion with multiple-country sustained human-to-human transmission exceeding historical Ebola precedents, though current epidemiological trends and agency assessments indicate low likelihood before year-end.