NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids pose significant impact risk through the remainder of 2026 or beyond, consistent with Sentry system assessments that place cumulative probabilities for detectable strikes well below 1 percent annually. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects, including recent safe close approaches by house- and airplane-sized bodies, shows no objects large enough to deliver 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy on collision trajectories. Small meteorite falls recorded earlier in 2026 released far less energy, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly one 5–10 m impactor per decade or longer. With roughly four months left in the year and no model updates indicating elevated risk, trader consensus favoring “No” at 71 percent reflects the absence of credible threats and the low baseline rate of such events.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
$312,008 वॉल्यूम
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids pose significant impact risk through the remainder of 2026 or beyond, consistent with Sentry system assessments that place cumulative probabilities for detectable strikes well below 1 percent annually. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects, including recent safe close approaches by house- and airplane-sized bodies, shows no objects large enough to deliver 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy on collision trajectories. Small meteorite falls recorded earlier in 2026 released far less energy, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly one 5–10 m impactor per decade or longer. With roughly four months left in the year and no model updates indicating elevated risk, trader consensus favoring “No” at 71 percent reflects the absence of credible threats and the low baseline rate of such events.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न