NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no credible asteroid impact threats for 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 4e-5 and energies far under 5 kilotons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 57.5% reflects the low risk from tracked near-Earth objects, tempered by historical bolide frequencies: CNEOS data indicates detected airbursts exceeding 5kt total impact energy occur roughly 0.3–0.5 times annually, implying a baseline 25–40% annual probability adjusted for global under-detection over oceans. A reported surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 per the American Meteor Society has slightly elevated "Yes" sentiment amid heightened monitoring, though no qualifying events yet. Continuous satellite and infrasound surveillance will refine odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
$291,925 वॉल्यूम
$291,925 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$291,925 वॉल्यूम
$291,925 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no credible asteroid impact threats for 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 4e-5 and energies far under 5 kilotons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 57.5% reflects the low risk from tracked near-Earth objects, tempered by historical bolide frequencies: CNEOS data indicates detected airbursts exceeding 5kt total impact energy occur roughly 0.3–0.5 times annually, implying a baseline 25–40% annual probability adjusted for global under-detection over oceans. A reported surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 per the American Meteor Society has slightly elevated "Yes" sentiment amid heightened monitoring, though no qualifying events yet. Continuous satellite and infrasound surveillance will refine odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$291,925समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no credible asteroid impact threats for 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 4e-5 and energies far under 5 kilotons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 57.5% reflects the low risk from tracked near-Earth objects, tempered by historical bolide frequencies: CNEOS data indicates detected airbursts exceeding 5kt total impact energy occur roughly 0.3–0.5 times annually, implying a baseline 25–40% annual probability adjusted for global under-detection over oceans. A reported surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 per the American Meteor Society has slightly elevated "Yes" sentiment amid heightened monitoring, though no qualifying events yet. Continuous satellite and infrasound surveillance will refine odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$291,925समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no credible asteroid impact threats for 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 4e-5 and energies far under 5 kilotons TNT equivalent. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 57.5% reflects the low risk from tracked near-Earth objects, tempered by historical bolide frequencies: CNEOS data indicates detected airbursts exceeding 5kt total impact energy occur roughly 0.3–0.5 times annually, implying a baseline 25–40% annual probability adjusted for global under-detection over oceans. A reported surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 per the American Meteor Society has slightly elevated "Yes" sentiment amid heightened monitoring, though no qualifying events yet. Continuous satellite and infrasound surveillance will refine odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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