NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks over the next century, lists no credible threats capable of releasing 1 megaton of energy in 2026—equivalent to a ~25-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-up Chelyabinsk event. The only potential 2026 impacts involve tiny 11-16 meter objects with probabilities below 0.004% and energies under 0.25 megatons, per Torino Scale 0 ratings. Comprehensive surveys detect over 95% of larger near-Earth objects, while historical bolide rates imply low annual odds for undetected small impacts. Recent safe close approaches of house- and bus-sized asteroids in early 2026 reinforce this trader consensus. Realistic shifts could arise from a surprise discovery of a small, fast-moving NEO, though ongoing radar and optical monitoring minimizes such risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
$104,378 वॉल्यूम
$104,378 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$104,378 वॉल्यूम
$104,378 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks over the next century, lists no credible threats capable of releasing 1 megaton of energy in 2026—equivalent to a ~25-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-up Chelyabinsk event. The only potential 2026 impacts involve tiny 11-16 meter objects with probabilities below 0.004% and energies under 0.25 megatons, per Torino Scale 0 ratings. Comprehensive surveys detect over 95% of larger near-Earth objects, while historical bolide rates imply low annual odds for undetected small impacts. Recent safe close approaches of house- and bus-sized asteroids in early 2026 reinforce this trader consensus. Realistic shifts could arise from a surprise discovery of a small, fast-moving NEO, though ongoing radar and optical monitoring minimizes such risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$104,378समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks over the next century, lists no credible threats capable of releasing 1 megaton of energy in 2026—equivalent to a ~25-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-up Chelyabinsk event. The only potential 2026 impacts involve tiny 11-16 meter objects with probabilities below 0.004% and energies under 0.25 megatons, per Torino Scale 0 ratings. Comprehensive surveys detect over 95% of larger near-Earth objects, while historical bolide rates imply low annual odds for undetected small impacts. Recent safe close approaches of house- and bus-sized asteroids in early 2026 reinforce this trader consensus. Realistic shifts could arise from a surprise discovery of a small, fast-moving NEO, though ongoing radar and optical monitoring minimizes such risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$104,378समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks over the next century, lists no credible threats capable of releasing 1 megaton of energy in 2026—equivalent to a ~25-meter bolide airburst like a scaled-up Chelyabinsk event. The only potential 2026 impacts involve tiny 11-16 meter objects with probabilities below 0.004% and energies under 0.25 megatons, per Torino Scale 0 ratings. Comprehensive surveys detect over 95% of larger near-Earth objects, while historical bolide rates imply low annual odds for undetected small impacts. Recent safe close approaches of house- and bus-sized asteroids in early 2026 reinforce this trader consensus. Realistic shifts could arise from a surprise discovery of a small, fast-moving NEO, though ongoing radar and optical monitoring minimizes such risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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