Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no catalogued asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton impact in 2026, with Sentry risk lists and recent observations confirming only negligible probabilities for known objects. Ongoing surveys using optical telescopes, radar tracking, and systems like LSST continue refining orbits without elevating alerts, while historical impact flux data indicate such events occur far less frequently than once per century on average. Traders assign the 98.3% “No” implied probability due to this skin-in-the-game consensus backed by extensive detection networks. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential undiscovered small bodies, though improved planetary defense capabilities make late detection of a 1-megaton-scale threat increasingly unlikely before any hypothetical impact.