NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all known near-Earth objects (NEOs), lists only minuscule impact probabilities—around 0.004% each—for two small asteroids in 2026, both rated Torino scale 0, posing no hazard and far below 100 kilotons (kt) TNT-equivalent energy thresholds. Trader consensus at 94.9% for "No" reflects this absence of tracked threats, plus historical infrasound data indicating 100kt bolide airbursts occur roughly once every 2–5 years globally, with none detected in 2026 so far despite Q1 fireballs peaking at under 1kt. Recent safe close approaches of car- and bus-sized asteroids in March reinforce low risk. Realistic challenges include late detection of an undetected ~30–50m NEO or a rare unforecastable meteoroid entry, though surveys cover over 95% of larger threats. Ongoing CNEOS updates could refine minor probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all known near-Earth objects (NEOs), lists only minuscule impact probabilities—around 0.004% each—for two small asteroids in 2026, both rated Torino scale 0, posing no hazard and far below 100 kilotons (kt) TNT-equivalent energy thresholds. Trader consensus at 94.9% for "No" reflects this absence of tracked threats, plus historical infrasound data indicating 100kt bolide airbursts occur roughly once every 2–5 years globally, with none detected in 2026 so far despite Q1 fireballs peaking at under 1kt. Recent safe close approaches of car- and bus-sized asteroids in March reinforce low risk. Realistic challenges include late detection of an undetected ~30–50m NEO or a rare unforecastable meteoroid entry, though surveys cover over 95% of larger threats. Ongoing CNEOS updates could refine minor probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,022समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all known near-Earth objects (NEOs), lists only minuscule impact probabilities—around 0.004% each—for two small asteroids in 2026, both rated Torino scale 0, posing no hazard and far below 100 kilotons (kt) TNT-equivalent energy thresholds. Trader consensus at 94.9% for "No" reflects this absence of tracked threats, plus historical infrasound data indicating 100kt bolide airbursts occur roughly once every 2–5 years globally, with none detected in 2026 so far despite Q1 fireballs peaking at under 1kt. Recent safe close approaches of car- and bus-sized asteroids in March reinforce low risk. Realistic challenges include late detection of an undetected ~30–50m NEO or a rare unforecastable meteoroid entry, though surveys cover over 95% of larger threats. Ongoing CNEOS updates could refine minor probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$7,022समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans all known near-Earth objects (NEOs), lists only minuscule impact probabilities—around 0.004% each—for two small asteroids in 2026, both rated Torino scale 0, posing no hazard and far below 100 kilotons (kt) TNT-equivalent energy thresholds. Trader consensus at 94.9% for "No" reflects this absence of tracked threats, plus historical infrasound data indicating 100kt bolide airbursts occur roughly once every 2–5 years globally, with none detected in 2026 so far despite Q1 fireballs peaking at under 1kt. Recent safe close approaches of car- and bus-sized asteroids in March reinforce low risk. Realistic challenges include late detection of an undetected ~30–50m NEO or a rare unforecastable meteoroid entry, though surveys cover over 95% of larger threats. Ongoing CNEOS updates could refine minor probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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