Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 वॉल्यूम
$1,153,243 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
69%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 69%
1 19%
2 4.2%
4 <1%
$1,153,243 वॉल्यूम
$1,153,243 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
$498,492 वॉल्यूम
69%
1
$273,654 वॉल्यूम
19%
2
$40,520 वॉल्यूम
4%
3
$31,127 वॉल्यूम
1%
4
$34,668 वॉल्यूम
1%
5+
$274,782 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,243समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,243समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (68% implied probability) because global historical rates average only about 0.5 such events annually, with many years recording none. Through early August 2026, official monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS shows no confirmed VEI ≥4 activity, as recent unrest at sites like Etna, Kīlauea, and Tokachidake has remained lower intensity or effusive. This absence aligns with the power-law frequency distribution where VEI 4+ events (typically ≥0.1 km³ tephra) occur infrequently, and the market reflects the low likelihood of multiple large explosive episodes materializing in the remaining months absent major shifts in seismic or deformation data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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