**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.** Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
0 68%
1 19%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
68%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 68%
1 19%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
$498,486 वॉल्यूम
68%
1
$273,574 वॉल्यूम
19%
2
$40,520 वॉल्यूम
4%
3
$31,127 वॉल्यूम
1%
4
$34,668 वॉल्यूम
1%
5+
$274,782 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.**
Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.**
Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.** Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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