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icon for 2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?

2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?

icon for 2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?

2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?

0 68%

1 19%

2 4.3%

4 1.0%

Polymarket

$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम

0 68%

1 19%

2 4.3%

4 1.0%

Polymarket

$1,153,157 वॉल्यूम

0

$498,486 वॉल्यूम

68%

1

$273,574 वॉल्यूम

19%

2

$40,520 वॉल्यूम

4%

3

$31,127 वॉल्यूम

1%

4

$34,668 वॉल्यूम

1%

5+

$274,782 वॉल्यूम

1%

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.** Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.

If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157
समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for 2026 (66.5% implied probability), reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through early August despite widespread ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes.** Global Volcanism Program data show 47 total eruptions this year, but none have reached the VEI 4 threshold of >0.1 km³ ejecta and plume heights exceeding 10 km on the official scale. The May 2026 submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea) produced significant pumice and was the year's most notable explosive episode, yet monitoring indicates it remained below VEI 4 intensity. With historical averages of roughly one VEI 4 event every 2–4 years and no current unrest at high-risk stratovolcanoes signaling imminent escalation, the market assigns only an 18% chance to exactly one such eruption before year-end. Upcoming USGS and Smithsonian updates on Aleutian, Icelandic, and Indonesian systems will be key watchpoints.

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.

If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,153,157
समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।

अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?" Polymarket पर 6 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, 0 68% (68¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद 1 19% पर है।

आज तक, "2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?" ने कुल $1.2 million ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Jan 2, 2026 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

"2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 6 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

"2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?" के लिए वर्तमान प्रबल दावेदार "0" 68% पर है। निकटतम परिणाम "1" 19% पर है। ये संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं जैसे-जैसे ट्रेडर शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं।

"2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।