Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability for all of 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 eruptions to date—all below VEI 4 threshold as of late March—with no explosive events meeting the ≥0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta criterion. This absence through mid-April aligns with the historical global frequency of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, per USGS and GVP databases, amid steady but low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Ongoing Smithsonian/USGS weekly reports show no seismic swarms or deformation signaling imminent large blasts, though monitoring of restless systems like Axial Seamount continues; new data could adjust odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 वॉल्यूम
$992,972 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 वॉल्यूम
$992,972 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
$446,751 वॉल्यूम
53%
1
$249,985 वॉल्यूम
36%
2
$21,796 वॉल्यूम
6%
3
$15,221 वॉल्यूम
2%
4
$15,476 वॉल्यूम
<1%
5+
$243,743 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability for all of 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 eruptions to date—all below VEI 4 threshold as of late March—with no explosive events meeting the ≥0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta criterion. This absence through mid-April aligns with the historical global frequency of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, per USGS and GVP databases, amid steady but low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Ongoing Smithsonian/USGS weekly reports show no seismic swarms or deformation signaling imminent large blasts, though monitoring of restless systems like Axial Seamount continues; new data could adjust odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$992,972समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability for all of 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 eruptions to date—all below VEI 4 threshold as of late March—with no explosive events meeting the ≥0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta criterion. This absence through mid-April aligns with the historical global frequency of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, per USGS and GVP databases, amid steady but low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Ongoing Smithsonian/USGS weekly reports show no seismic swarms or deformation signaling imminent large blasts, though monitoring of restless systems like Axial Seamount continues; new data could adjust odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$992,972समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability for all of 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 eruptions to date—all below VEI 4 threshold as of late March—with no explosive events meeting the ≥0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta criterion. This absence through mid-April aligns with the historical global frequency of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, per USGS and GVP databases, amid steady but low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Ongoing Smithsonian/USGS weekly reports show no seismic swarms or deformation signaling imminent large blasts, though monitoring of restless systems like Axial Seamount continues; new data could adjust odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न