**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, supporting the 92% market-implied probability of “No.”** Such events are infrequent, with historical return times of roughly several per century based on Global Volcanism Program records, making the remaining months statistically low-probability under current conditions. Ongoing activity monitored by agencies including the USGS and Smithsonian remains at lower levels, with examples such as episodic Kīlauea fountaining, Semeru (VEI 4 range), and various VEI 2–3 events at Reventador, Fuego, and others producing ash plumes but no Plinian-scale explosivity. Model consensus and seismic/volcanic gas data show no rapid escalation toward VEI 6 thresholds at monitored systems. While an unforeseen surge at a restless caldera or poorly observed volcano could still occur before year-end, the absence of precursors and the advanced date reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्रमुख ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥6)?
2026 में प्रमुख ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥6)?
8% संभावना
$146,639 वॉल्यूम
$146,639 वॉल्यूम
30 मार्च, 2027
8% संभावना
$146,639 वॉल्यूम
$146,639 वॉल्यूम
30 मार्च, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, supporting the 92% market-implied probability of “No.”** Such events are infrequent, with historical return times of roughly several per century based on Global Volcanism Program records, making the remaining months statistically low-probability under current conditions. Ongoing activity monitored by agencies including the USGS and Smithsonian remains at lower levels, with examples such as episodic Kīlauea fountaining, Semeru (VEI 4 range), and various VEI 2–3 events at Reventador, Fuego, and others producing ash plumes but no Plinian-scale explosivity. Model consensus and seismic/volcanic gas data show no rapid escalation toward VEI 6 thresholds at monitored systems. While an unforeseen surge at a restless caldera or poorly observed volcano could still occur before year-end, the absence of precursors and the advanced date reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$146,639समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, supporting the 92% market-implied probability of “No.”** Such events are infrequent, with historical return times of roughly several per century based on Global Volcanism Program records, making the remaining months statistically low-probability under current conditions. Ongoing activity monitored by agencies including the USGS and Smithsonian remains at lower levels, with examples such as episodic Kīlauea fountaining, Semeru (VEI 4 range), and various VEI 2–3 events at Reventador, Fuego, and others producing ash plumes but no Plinian-scale explosivity. Model consensus and seismic/volcanic gas data show no rapid escalation toward VEI 6 thresholds at monitored systems. While an unforeseen surge at a restless caldera or poorly observed volcano could still occur before year-end, the absence of precursors and the advanced date reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$146,639समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, supporting the 92% market-implied probability of “No.”** Such events are infrequent, with historical return times of roughly several per century based on Global Volcanism Program records, making the remaining months statistically low-probability under current conditions. Ongoing activity monitored by agencies including the USGS and Smithsonian remains at lower levels, with examples such as episodic Kīlauea fountaining, Semeru (VEI 4 range), and various VEI 2–3 events at Reventador, Fuego, and others producing ash plumes but no Plinian-scale explosivity. Model consensus and seismic/volcanic gas data show no rapid escalation toward VEI 6 thresholds at monitored systems. While an unforeseen surge at a restless caldera or poorly observed volcano could still occur before year-end, the absence of precursors and the advanced date reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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