**Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with background parameters only, as confirmed by Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring through August 2026.** Seismic activity stayed low, with 112 events recorded that month—most below magnitude 1.0 and none exceeding 1.6—while geodetic data showed no magmatic deformation, crater temperatures remained stable, and hydrothermal activity continued its long-term decline. The volcano has been quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, and with only months remaining in 2026, the absence of precursors makes a VEI 1 or greater event highly improbable. Trader consensus at 95.4% “No” reflects this extended dormancy and real-time surveillance. A rapid escalation in seismicity, ground uplift, or gas emissions in the final quarter could still shift odds, though such changes would need to develop and intensify quickly to produce an eruption before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
5% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.**Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with background parameters only, as confirmed by Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring through August 2026.** Seismic activity stayed low, with 112 events recorded that month—most below magnitude 1.0 and none exceeding 1.6—while geodetic data showed no magmatic deformation, crater temperatures remained stable, and hydrothermal activity continued its long-term decline. The volcano has been quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, and with only months remaining in 2026, the absence of precursors makes a VEI 1 or greater event highly improbable. Trader consensus at 95.4% “No” reflects this extended dormancy and real-time surveillance. A rapid escalation in seismicity, ground uplift, or gas emissions in the final quarter could still shift odds, though such changes would need to develop and intensify quickly to produce an eruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$660समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.**Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with background parameters only, as confirmed by Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring through August 2026.** Seismic activity stayed low, with 112 events recorded that month—most below magnitude 1.0 and none exceeding 1.6—while geodetic data showed no magmatic deformation, crater temperatures remained stable, and hydrothermal activity continued its long-term decline. The volcano has been quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, and with only months remaining in 2026, the absence of precursors makes a VEI 1 or greater event highly improbable. Trader consensus at 95.4% “No” reflects this extended dormancy and real-time surveillance. A rapid escalation in seismicity, ground uplift, or gas emissions in the final quarter could still shift odds, though such changes would need to develop and intensify quickly to produce an eruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
वॉल्यूम
$660समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert level with background parameters only, as confirmed by Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring through August 2026.** Seismic activity stayed low, with 112 events recorded that month—most below magnitude 1.0 and none exceeding 1.6—while geodetic data showed no magmatic deformation, crater temperatures remained stable, and hydrothermal activity continued its long-term decline. The volcano has been quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, and with only months remaining in 2026, the absence of precursors makes a VEI 1 or greater event highly improbable. Trader consensus at 95.4% “No” reflects this extended dormancy and real-time surveillance. A rapid escalation in seismicity, ground uplift, or gas emissions in the final quarter could still shift odds, though such changes would need to develop and intensify quickly to produce an eruption before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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