Traders assign a 69.5% probability that nothing major occurs in 2026 largely because recent months have shown continued diplomatic engagement without new military escalations in active conflicts and steady progress toward the November midterm elections. The absence of sudden legislative crises, high-profile resignations, or unexpected court rulings has reinforced expectations of institutional continuity. Primary election results and early polling averages have pointed to familiar partisan balances rather than dramatic realignments, while scheduled budget and appropriations deadlines have proceeded along predictable paths. These factors together support the current market view that major disruptions remain unlikely through year-end.