Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140–169 (33.5%) and 170–199 (33.0%) tornadoes for April, reflecting a slow start with only about 33 preliminary confirmed events through April 15—well below the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182—despite recent upticks from the April 13 outbreak across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that produced at least seven tornadoes amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE >2000 J/kg) and strong vertical wind shear. Differentiating factors include forecast model consensus for 5–10 more enhanced-to-moderate risk (Storm Prediction Center outlook levels 3–4%) days in the Plains and Midwest through month-end, driven by progressive upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture influx, and low lifted condensation levels favoring supercells; however, uncertainty in storm track precision and CAPE realization could limit totals to the lower bin or push toward 200 if multiple high-risk setups materialize, with final NOAA counts expected post-May via Storm Prediction Center surveys.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 वॉल्यूम
$38,432 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
<140
9%
140–169
32%
170–199
33%
200–229
10%
230–259
5%
260–289
18%
290–319
13%
320–350
18%
350+
6%
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 वॉल्यूम
$38,432 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
<140
$8,909 वॉल्यूम
9%
140–169
$6,632 वॉल्यूम
32%
170–199
$427 वॉल्यूम
33%
200–229
$95 वॉल्यूम
10%
230–259
$92 वॉल्यूम
5%
260–289
$128 वॉल्यूम
18%
290–319
$258 वॉल्यूम
13%
320–350
$154 वॉल्यूम
18%
350+
$21,736 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140–169 (33.5%) and 170–199 (33.0%) tornadoes for April, reflecting a slow start with only about 33 preliminary confirmed events through April 15—well below the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182—despite recent upticks from the April 13 outbreak across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that produced at least seven tornadoes amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE >2000 J/kg) and strong vertical wind shear. Differentiating factors include forecast model consensus for 5–10 more enhanced-to-moderate risk (Storm Prediction Center outlook levels 3–4%) days in the Plains and Midwest through month-end, driven by progressive upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture influx, and low lifted condensation levels favoring supercells; however, uncertainty in storm track precision and CAPE realization could limit totals to the lower bin or push toward 200 if multiple high-risk setups materialize, with final NOAA counts expected post-May via Storm Prediction Center surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$38,432समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140–169 (33.5%) and 170–199 (33.0%) tornadoes for April, reflecting a slow start with only about 33 preliminary confirmed events through April 15—well below the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182—despite recent upticks from the April 13 outbreak across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that produced at least seven tornadoes amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE >2000 J/kg) and strong vertical wind shear. Differentiating factors include forecast model consensus for 5–10 more enhanced-to-moderate risk (Storm Prediction Center outlook levels 3–4%) days in the Plains and Midwest through month-end, driven by progressive upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture influx, and low lifted condensation levels favoring supercells; however, uncertainty in storm track precision and CAPE realization could limit totals to the lower bin or push toward 200 if multiple high-risk setups materialize, with final NOAA counts expected post-May via Storm Prediction Center surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$38,432समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 140–169 (33.5%) and 170–199 (33.0%) tornadoes for April, reflecting a slow start with only about 33 preliminary confirmed events through April 15—well below the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182—despite recent upticks from the April 13 outbreak across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that produced at least seven tornadoes amid high convective available potential energy (CAPE >2000 J/kg) and strong vertical wind shear. Differentiating factors include forecast model consensus for 5–10 more enhanced-to-moderate risk (Storm Prediction Center outlook levels 3–4%) days in the Plains and Midwest through month-end, driven by progressive upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture influx, and low lifted condensation levels favoring supercells; however, uncertainty in storm track precision and CAPE realization could limit totals to the lower bin or push toward 200 if multiple high-risk setups materialize, with final NOAA counts expected post-May via Storm Prediction Center surveys.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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