Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence with the Kimi series—K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE Kimi K3 in mid-July—has fueled trader focus on a potential K4 successor by late 2026. K3’s frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks, combined with strong API adoption and revenue growth toward $2B annualized run-rate, supports expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement or specs exist as of September 2026. The company is reportedly seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a substantially larger model, while facing U.S. and Anthropic accusations of capability extraction that could complicate development or partnerships. Key swing factors include compute availability, any fall developer events, and whether regulatory scrutiny delays open-weight releases or API launches.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$17,814 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टू, 2026
31 अक्टूबर, 2026
3%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
5%
$17,814 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टूबर, 2026
$9,489 वॉल्यूम
3%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
$8,325 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence with the Kimi series—K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE Kimi K3 in mid-July—has fueled trader focus on a potential K4 successor by late 2026. K3’s frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks, combined with strong API adoption and revenue growth toward $2B annualized run-rate, supports expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement or specs exist as of September 2026. The company is reportedly seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a substantially larger model, while facing U.S. and Anthropic accusations of capability extraction that could complicate development or partnerships. Key swing factors include compute availability, any fall developer events, and whether regulatory scrutiny delays open-weight releases or API launches.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,814समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence with the Kimi series—K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE Kimi K3 in mid-July—has fueled trader focus on a potential K4 successor by late 2026. K3’s frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks, combined with strong API adoption and revenue growth toward $2B annualized run-rate, supports expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement or specs exist as of September 2026. The company is reportedly seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a substantially larger model, while facing U.S. and Anthropic accusations of capability extraction that could complicate development or partnerships. Key swing factors include compute availability, any fall developer events, and whether regulatory scrutiny delays open-weight releases or API launches.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$17,814समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence with the Kimi series—K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE Kimi K3 in mid-July—has fueled trader focus on a potential K4 successor by late 2026. K3’s frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks, combined with strong API adoption and revenue growth toward $2B annualized run-rate, supports expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement or specs exist as of September 2026. The company is reportedly seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a substantially larger model, while facing U.S. and Anthropic accusations of capability extraction that could complicate development or partnerships. Key swing factors include compute availability, any fall developer events, and whether regulatory scrutiny delays open-weight releases or API launches.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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