**President Lee Jae-myung, who took office in June 2025, benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings against sitting presidents except for insurrection or treason.** His prior cases—related to development projects, election law, and other allegations from his time as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor—remain paused in the courts, with resumption expected only after his term ends in 2030. The ruling Democratic Party holds a legislative majority and has explored special counsel mechanisms to review or potentially cancel existing indictments viewed by supporters as politically motivated, though the justice minister nominee has stated no intent to direct prosecutors on the matter. Recent activity centers on foreign policy, including state visits and diplomatic initiatives, alongside domestic reforms, with no new indictments, arrest warrants, or enforcement actions reported against the president. These structural protections and political dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.2% probability for “No.”