Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.9% implied probability to no North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027, driven by Pyongyang's routine provocations—such as short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 8—without indicators of invasion preparations like DMZ troop buildups or artillery redeployments. Kim Jong-un's February declaration rejecting reunification and designating South Korea the "principal enemy state" heightened rhetoric, yet North Korea focuses on nuclear expansion, submarine-launched ICBMs, and troop deployments to Russia in Ukraine rather than conventional assault. Robust U.S.-South Korean alliances, joint drills, and Seoul's advances in AI surveillance and nuclear submarines reinforce deterrence against escalation. Late-breaking mobilizations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift dynamics, though historical patterns suggest restraint.