Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and global ensembles indicate a low in the upper 50s to low 60s for New York City on September 22, driven by persistent northeasterly flow advecting cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. This pattern limits radiational cooling overnight while maintaining moderate humidity and wind mixing that prevents sharper drops. The near-even split between 58-59°F and 60-61°F outcomes reflects small differences across model runs in precipitation timing and boundary-layer wind speeds, both of which can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Historical climatology places the average low near 59°F, providing context for the tight market clustering around that range ahead of final observations.