Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by a pivotal April 21 statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional maps ahead of the November 3 general election. Proposed maps would shift VA-05 from its current Republican lean toward competitiveness or Democratic advantage, prompting incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) to rally against the change while seeking reelection. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) leads a crowded Democratic primary field with superior fundraising—outpacing McGuire threefold through early 2026—and the DCCC has targeted the battleground. Recent polls indicate Democratic viability even on existing lines, amid midterm headwinds for the president's party, with filing deadline May 26 and primaries August 4 looming.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाVA -05 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
VA -05 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$28,409 वॉल्यूम
$28,409 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
75%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
22%
$28,409 वॉल्यूम
$28,409 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$15,741 वॉल्यूम
75%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$12,668 वॉल्यूम
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by a pivotal April 21 statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional maps ahead of the November 3 general election. Proposed maps would shift VA-05 from its current Republican lean toward competitiveness or Democratic advantage, prompting incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) to rally against the change while seeking reelection. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) leads a crowded Democratic primary field with superior fundraising—outpacing McGuire threefold through early 2026—and the DCCC has targeted the battleground. Recent polls indicate Democratic viability even on existing lines, amid midterm headwinds for the president's party, with filing deadline May 26 and primaries August 4 looming.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,409समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by a pivotal April 21 statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional maps ahead of the November 3 general election. Proposed maps would shift VA-05 from its current Republican lean toward competitiveness or Democratic advantage, prompting incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) to rally against the change while seeking reelection. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) leads a crowded Democratic primary field with superior fundraising—outpacing McGuire threefold through early 2026—and the DCCC has targeted the battleground. Recent polls indicate Democratic viability even on existing lines, amid midterm headwinds for the president's party, with filing deadline May 26 and primaries August 4 looming.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$28,409समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by a pivotal April 21 statewide referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw congressional maps ahead of the November 3 general election. Proposed maps would shift VA-05 from its current Republican lean toward competitiveness or Democratic advantage, prompting incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) to rally against the change while seeking reelection. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) leads a crowded Democratic primary field with superior fundraising—outpacing McGuire threefold through early 2026—and the DCCC has targeted the battleground. Recent polls indicate Democratic viability even on existing lines, amid midterm headwinds for the president's party, with filing deadline May 26 and primaries August 4 looming.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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