Skip to main content
Market icon

April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Market icon

April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 10

May 10

1.15–1.19ºC 47%

1.20–1.24ºC 35%

1.25–1.29ºC 13%

1.10–1.14ºC 8%

Polymarket

$135,739 Vol.

1.15–1.19ºC 47%

1.20–1.24ºC 35%

1.25–1.29ºC 13%

1.10–1.14ºC 8%

Polymarket

$135,739 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$30,152 Vol.

3%

1.10–1.14ºC

$24,508 Vol.

8%

1.15–1.19ºC

$16,080 Vol.

47%

1.20–1.24ºC

$19,355 Vol.

35%

1.25–1.29ºC

$29,392 Vol.

13%

>1.29ºC

$16,253 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) for April 2026 at 46.5%, reflecting March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of +1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 data amid near-record sea surface temperatures. ENSO-neutral conditions, favored by NOAA through April–June (80% chance), temper expectations for El Niño-driven spikes seen in prior record months, positioning the 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 35% while capping >1.29ºC below 3%. Ongoing Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecasts signal above-normal temperatures for April–June, but inherent model uncertainty and early-month observations leave room for shifts ahead of the mid-May bulletin.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$135,739
Tanggal Berakhir
May 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) for April 2026 at 46.5%, reflecting March 2026's fourth-warmest reading of +1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 data amid near-record sea surface temperatures. ENSO-neutral conditions, favored by NOAA through April–June (80% chance), temper expectations for El Niño-driven spikes seen in prior record months, positioning the 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 35% while capping >1.29ºC below 3%. Ongoing Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecasts signal above-normal temperatures for April–June, but inherent model uncertainty and early-month observations leave room for shifts ahead of the mid-May bulletin.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$135,739
Tanggal Berakhir
May 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "1.15–1.19ºC" di 47%, diikuti oleh "1.20–1.24ºC" di 35%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 47¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" telah menghasilkan $135.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 23, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" adalah "1.15–1.19ºC" di 47%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1.20–1.24ºC" di 35%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.