Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 46.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) June settlement exceeding $84, driven by lingering supply risks from U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, even as recent reopening news sparked a sharp futures pullback—CLM26 tumbling over 8% to around $82.50. U.S. EIA data for the week ended April 10 revealed commercial crude inventories contracting 0.9 million barrels to 463.8 million, signaling tightening fundamentals amid delayed OPEC+ output hikes. Subdued Chinese demand growth tempers bullish momentum, supporting the $77-$84 range at 21.5%, with the next EIA release on April 22 and potential geopolitical flare-ups as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 47%
$77-$84 22%
$70-$77 17.1%
$63-$70 11.1%
$135,578 Vol.
$135,578 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
11%
$70-$77
17%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
47%
>$84 47%
$77-$84 22%
$70-$77 17.1%
$63-$70 11.1%
$135,578 Vol.
$135,578 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
11%
$70-$77
17%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
47%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 46.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) June settlement exceeding $84, driven by lingering supply risks from U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, even as recent reopening news sparked a sharp futures pullback—CLM26 tumbling over 8% to around $82.50. U.S. EIA data for the week ended April 10 revealed commercial crude inventories contracting 0.9 million barrels to 463.8 million, signaling tightening fundamentals amid delayed OPEC+ output hikes. Subdued Chinese demand growth tempers bullish momentum, supporting the $77-$84 range at 21.5%, with the next EIA release on April 22 and potential geopolitical flare-ups as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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