Current forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather project Beijing's July 21 high in the 29–31°C range, driven by typical mid-July East Asian monsoon conditions that bring humid air masses, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover capable of limiting peak solar heating. These factors create tight differentiation among the leading market outcomes, as even modest shifts in precipitation timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture can alter afternoon maxima by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling or enhanced greenhouse warming. With the market-implied probabilities clustered around 30–32°C and no extreme heat signals in recent model runs, traders are weighting the historical July average of roughly 31°C against the cooling potential of ongoing convective activity expected through midweek. Updated ensemble guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on July 21?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?
31°C 90.0%
32°C 16.3%
33°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$70,442 Vol.
$70,442 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
87%
32°C
16%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 90.0%
32°C 16.3%
33°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$70,442 Vol.
$70,442 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
25°C or below
$822 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,295 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,144 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$11,430 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$9,534 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,506 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$9,662 Vol.
87%
32°C
$6,072 Vol.
16%
33°C
$8,487 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,074 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$4,718 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather project Beijing's July 21 high in the 29–31°C range, driven by typical mid-July East Asian monsoon conditions that bring humid air masses, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover capable of limiting peak solar heating. These factors create tight differentiation among the leading market outcomes, as even modest shifts in precipitation timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture can alter afternoon maxima by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling or enhanced greenhouse warming. With the market-implied probabilities clustered around 30–32°C and no extreme heat signals in recent model runs, traders are weighting the historical July average of roughly 31°C against the cooling potential of ongoing convective activity expected through midweek. Updated ensemble guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$70,442Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather project Beijing's July 21 high in the 29–31°C range, driven by typical mid-July East Asian monsoon conditions that bring humid air masses, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover capable of limiting peak solar heating. These factors create tight differentiation among the leading market outcomes, as even modest shifts in precipitation timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture can alter afternoon maxima by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling or enhanced greenhouse warming. With the market-implied probabilities clustered around 30–32°C and no extreme heat signals in recent model runs, traders are weighting the historical July average of roughly 31°C against the cooling potential of ongoing convective activity expected through midweek. Updated ensemble guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70,442Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather project Beijing's July 21 high in the 29–31°C range, driven by typical mid-July East Asian monsoon conditions that bring humid air masses, scattered thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover capable of limiting peak solar heating. These factors create tight differentiation among the leading market outcomes, as even modest shifts in precipitation timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture can alter afternoon maxima by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling or enhanced greenhouse warming. With the market-implied probabilities clustered around 30–32°C and no extreme heat signals in recent model runs, traders are weighting the historical July average of roughly 31°C against the cooling potential of ongoing convective activity expected through midweek. Updated ensemble guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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