**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Helsinki on July 6, 2026, centers on 17–18°C as the most likely outcomes, with combined market-implied odds near 56% and other bins receiving far less weight.** This reflects the latest short-range guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and supporting ensemble output, which point to daytime maxima around 16–19°C at the Helsinki-Vantaa reference station. FMI hourly forecasts show afternoon readings near 16°C on July 6 under partly cloudy skies, while the Met Office projects a slightly higher 19°C peak; the difference arises mainly from how models handle Baltic Sea maritime moderation and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-July climatology features highs near 20–21°C, but a cooler northerly or northwesterly flow is suppressing daytime heating by limiting insolation and advecting milder marine air. Ensemble spread from ECMWF and FMI runs remains modest, with most members clustering between 16°C and 19°C, which explains why the 17°C and 18°C bins dominate while probabilities drop sharply outside that range. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover timing, wind speed (stronger winds enhance mixing and cap peaks), and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperatures or low-level moisture. With the market resolving on the official station observation in just two days, traders are weighting the most recent model consensus heavily, producing tight clustering around the leading outcomes rather than broader uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Helsinki on July 6?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 6?
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$63,765 Vol.
$63,765 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$63,765 Vol.
$63,765 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Sumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Helsinki on July 6, 2026, centers on 17–18°C as the most likely outcomes, with combined market-implied odds near 56% and other bins receiving far less weight.** This reflects the latest short-range guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and supporting ensemble output, which point to daytime maxima around 16–19°C at the Helsinki-Vantaa reference station. FMI hourly forecasts show afternoon readings near 16°C on July 6 under partly cloudy skies, while the Met Office projects a slightly higher 19°C peak; the difference arises mainly from how models handle Baltic Sea maritime moderation and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-July climatology features highs near 20–21°C, but a cooler northerly or northwesterly flow is suppressing daytime heating by limiting insolation and advecting milder marine air. Ensemble spread from ECMWF and FMI runs remains modest, with most members clustering between 16°C and 19°C, which explains why the 17°C and 18°C bins dominate while probabilities drop sharply outside that range. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover timing, wind speed (stronger winds enhance mixing and cap peaks), and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperatures or low-level moisture. With the market resolving on the official station observation in just two days, traders are weighting the most recent model consensus heavily, producing tight clustering around the leading outcomes rather than broader uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan