Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping July 12 maximum temperatures in Lucknow clustered near 33–35 °C, with market-implied odds reflecting this narrow range. Official IMD observations on 9 July recorded 33 °C—nearly 2 °C below normal—alongside heavy rainfall and high humidity that limited daytime heating. Numerical models show modest spread because steering winds and convective timing can shift peak temperatures by 1–2 °C on any given day; traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the central outcomes while still pricing a non-negligible chance of 36 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger insolation. Updated IMD and global model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the current below-normal regime persists or relaxes slightly before market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Lucknow on July 12?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 12?
35°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$30,523 Vol.
$30,523 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$30,523 Vol.
$30,523 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
26°C or below
$716 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,900 Vol.
No
28°C
$563 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,274 Vol.
No
30°C
$661 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,996 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,423 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,048 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,207 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,710 Vol.
Yes
36°C or higher
$8,025 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping July 12 maximum temperatures in Lucknow clustered near 33–35 °C, with market-implied odds reflecting this narrow range. Official IMD observations on 9 July recorded 33 °C—nearly 2 °C below normal—alongside heavy rainfall and high humidity that limited daytime heating. Numerical models show modest spread because steering winds and convective timing can shift peak temperatures by 1–2 °C on any given day; traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the central outcomes while still pricing a non-negligible chance of 36 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger insolation. Updated IMD and global model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the current below-normal regime persists or relaxes slightly before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 10, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$30,523Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping July 12 maximum temperatures in Lucknow clustered near 33–35 °C, with market-implied odds reflecting this narrow range. Official IMD observations on 9 July recorded 33 °C—nearly 2 °C below normal—alongside heavy rainfall and high humidity that limited daytime heating. Numerical models show modest spread because steering winds and convective timing can shift peak temperatures by 1–2 °C on any given day; traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the central outcomes while still pricing a non-negligible chance of 36 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger insolation. Updated IMD and global model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the current below-normal regime persists or relaxes slightly before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,523Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Recent monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping July 12 maximum temperatures in Lucknow clustered near 33–35 °C, with market-implied odds reflecting this narrow range. Official IMD observations on 9 July recorded 33 °C—nearly 2 °C below normal—alongside heavy rainfall and high humidity that limited daytime heating. Numerical models show modest spread because steering winds and convective timing can shift peak temperatures by 1–2 °C on any given day; traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the central outcomes while still pricing a non-negligible chance of 36 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger insolation. Updated IMD and global model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether the current below-normal regime persists or relaxes slightly before market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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