Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Madrid on September 11 under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds. These values sit above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5°C, reflecting seasonal late-summer warmth and subsidence that limits cloud formation and enhances daytime heating. Low dew points and minimal precipitation risk further support efficient radiational warming. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, with 31°C leading at 55.5% and 30°C at 31.0%, while higher outcomes like 33°C remain possible only if ridge strength or downslope flow intensifies beyond current guidance. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will provide the next key refinements ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 56%
30°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
15%
30°C
31%
31°C
56%
32°C
9%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 56%
30°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$9 Vol.
15%
30°C
$158 Vol.
31%
31°C
$621 Vol.
56%
32°C
$0 Vol.
9%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Madrid on September 11 under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds. These values sit above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5°C, reflecting seasonal late-summer warmth and subsidence that limits cloud formation and enhances daytime heating. Low dew points and minimal precipitation risk further support efficient radiational warming. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, with 31°C leading at 55.5% and 30°C at 31.0%, while higher outcomes like 33°C remain possible only if ridge strength or downslope flow intensifies beyond current guidance. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will provide the next key refinements ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$788Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Madrid on September 11 under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds. These values sit above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5°C, reflecting seasonal late-summer warmth and subsidence that limits cloud formation and enhances daytime heating. Low dew points and minimal precipitation risk further support efficient radiational warming. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, with 31°C leading at 55.5% and 30°C at 31.0%, while higher outcomes like 33°C remain possible only if ridge strength or downslope flow intensifies beyond current guidance. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will provide the next key refinements ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$788Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a maximum temperature of 30–31°C in Madrid on September 11 under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds. These values sit above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5°C, reflecting seasonal late-summer warmth and subsidence that limits cloud formation and enhances daytime heating. Low dew points and minimal precipitation risk further support efficient radiational warming. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, with 31°C leading at 55.5% and 30°C at 31.0%, while higher outcomes like 33°C remain possible only if ridge strength or downslope flow intensifies beyond current guidance. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will provide the next key refinements ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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