Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
18°C 99%
17°C 18%
16°C 1.0%
15°C or below <1%
$2,946 Vol.
$2,946 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
18°C 99%
17°C 18%
16°C 1.0%
15°C or below <1%
$2,946 Vol.
$2,946 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
$120 Vol.
No
16°C
$48 Vol.
No
17°C
$41 Vol.
No
18°C
$55 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$314 Vol.
No
20°C
$174 Vol.
No
21°C
$444 Vol.
No
22°C
$68 Vol.
No
23°C
$86 Vol.
No
24°C
$276 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$1,321 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,946Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,946Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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