**Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to scattered afternoon thunderstorms as the main factor capping or boosting Miami’s peak temperature on August 3.** These storms, driven by daytime heating, high boundary-layer moisture, and the typical south Florida sea-breeze circulation, frequently develop between 1–4 p.m. local time and can either truncate the daily maximum or allow brief clearing that pushes readings higher. Climatologically, Miami International Airport (the resolution station) records an early-August normal high near 89–91 °F. Current short-range model consensus and ensemble spreads center on 90–93 °F, with 90–91 °F slightly favored because stronger or earlier storm coverage tends to limit the peak. A drier or later-developing convective pattern, or stronger southerly flow suppressing the sea breeze, would favor the 92–93 °F bin instead. The tight 43.5 % / 36.5 % market split on those two outcomes therefore reflects genuine uncertainty in the exact timing, coverage, and intensity of tomorrow’s convection—variables that official forecast updates through the evening of August 2 and morning of August 3 will continue to refine.