Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in NYC on May 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 4?
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Vol.
$239,396 Vol.
May 4, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 Vol.
$239,396 Vol.
May 4, 2026
61°F or below
$7,409 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$1,280 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$11,251 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$9,720 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$9,169 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$54,076 Vol.
Yes
72-73°F
$93,221 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$18,288 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$16,815 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$6,087 Vol.
No
80°F or higher
$12,081 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$239,396Tanggal Berakhir
May 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$239,396Tanggal Berakhir
May 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan