Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$173,186 Vol.
$173,186 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
Yes
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$173,186 Vol.
$173,186 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
20°C or below
$3,561 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,836 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,526 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,499 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,971 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,571 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,829 Vol.
No
27°C
$21,032 Vol.
No
28°C
$50,044 Vol.
No
29°C
$37,312 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$32,003 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$173,186Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$173,186Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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