Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 13?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$82,875 Vol.
$82,875 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$82,875 Vol.
$82,875 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
$4,681 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,693 Vol.
No
22°C
$16,346 Vol.
No
23°C
$11,543 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,949 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,191 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$6,466 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,445 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,161 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,626 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$771 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$82,875Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82,875Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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